Dear German friends : your Energiewende is threatening Germany and whole Europe

The German Federal  Court of Auditors and The Energiewende. When Germany puts herself and Europe at risk !

! this is election year in Germany and the failure of the Energiewende is of utmost importance and should really be debated. The report of the federal court of auditors (Bundesrechnungshof) is an importance piece of information and it is really, really  worrying that is practically not publicized and not debated !

As one German reaction satted : “"The power of the press also lies in not reporting certain things. So there is no problem. »

See also : Energiewende : Our dear German friends are starting to seriously break our balls; https://vivrelarecherche.blogspot.com/2019/09/energiewende-our-dear-german-friends_21.html; https://vivrelarecherche.blogspot.com/2019/09/energiewende-our-dear-german-friends_55.html ; https://vivrelarecherche.blogspot.com/2019/09/energiewende-our-dear-german-friends.html ; https://vivrelarecherche.blogspot.com/2019/09/energiewende-our-dear-german-friends_25.html

 Article Die Welt, 31/03/2021

https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article229449033/Energieversorgung-Bundesrechnungshof-warnt-vor-Stromluecke.html?mc_cid=64a4535f40&mc_eid=0c2b52148d

Costs are out of control - and there is a serious risk of electricity shortages! 

Now Energywende is putting Germany at risk! The federal government accepts too high electricity prices and the risk of supply disruptions in order to continue its energy transition.   Today, the Federal Court of Auditors warns that if things continue in this way, Germany and its economy will be in danger! Costs are out of control - and there is a risk of electricity shortages.

The Federal Court of Auditors accused the Federal Ministry of Economy of "failure to control Energywende and mismanagement". These criticisms were already included in a previous report three years ago, and auditors are not only renewing them, but have added an explosive security analysis.

"Since our last review in 2018, too little has been done to master and succeed in the energy transition," said Court President Kay Scheller during the presentation of the second special report: "It makes you think."  In the previous report, the main focus was on controlling the costs of Energiewende, now auditors are also analysing the security of Germany's electricity supply, and the result is alarming!

According to their findings, the federal government does not consider "real and emerging dangers to security of supply" and monitoring the energy transition is "incomplete".

If we continue to follow the current trend, electricity prices will continue to rise. The Federal Court of Auditors mentions a study that the Energiewende will require an additional 525 billion euros between 2020 and 2025 to ensure the supply of electricity, including extension of the grid. However, electricity prices for private households are already 43 per cent above the European average !

Comment: the article is not very clear: forecasts 500 billion more probably on the whole note, already estimated between 1000 and 1500 billion euros over the whole period 2000-2050

The Federal Court of Auditors warns that "the energy transition in this form endangers Germany's economic competitiveness and its international position, and threatens the financial strength of electricity-consuming companies and private households," warned Kay Scheller during the presentation of the special report: "This may ultimately compromise the social acceptance of the energy transition."

 

Population, electricity demand, reserves, weather: nothing is going right: "the key assumptions on which the current assessment of security of supply in the electricity market is based are unrealistic or outdated»

 

The explosive nature of the report is further amplified by the fact that the auditors submitted their criticism to the Federal Ministry responsible for the economy. The answers, explanations and justifications of the minister headed by CDU Minister Peter Altmaier were included in the auditor's report - and they do not, to say the least, reassure the auditors and mitigate their conclusions..

 

Specifically, auditors accuse the federal government of not properly considering the consequences of the phase-out of coal. Earlier this year, 11 coal-fired power plants were closed. Overall, the phase-out under the Coal-Fired Electricity End Act is now being implemented more quickly than anticipated in the Security of Supply Reports.

 

The Federal Ministry of economy last expressed on security of supply in 2019, that is, before the decision to phase out coal. In this document, the phasing out of coal was "indirectly reviewed" - and deemed "harmless" explains the ministry.

Comment: well, just believe it when you see what coal was like in Germany?. So far, the Germans have almost doubled their park. The real problems will begin with the elimination of fossils and nuclear power capable of ensuring baseload production and replacement by intermittent energies

In examining these statements, the Federal Court of Audit found inconsistencies. A comparison with the legal timetable for the decommissioning of coal-fired power plants shows instead that the study assumes a higher secure production from 2022 onwards than can actually be expected after the coal phase-out. There is a "planning gap" of 4.5 gigawatts between the two, which corresponds to the capacity of four large conventional power plants. 

But according to the Department of Economic Affairs, there is a "probability of grid balance" of nearly 100 percent despite the phasing out of coal. The probability that electricity demand could still be covered by electricity supply would be exactly 99.94%. This is questioned by the reviewers. The government's report's calculation of the probability of network balancing "is based on assumptions that sometimes seem unrealistic or are overtaken by current political and economic developments."

 

The auditors state: It is "not realistic to assume that the renewable energy expansion targets will be met under the currently difficult acceptance conditions, especially for wind projects".

 

It is also risky for the federal government to simply base its wind and solar energy forecasts on "historical weather conditions from 2009 to 2013. It is "inappropriate that this simulation does not take into account a year with low energy yields from wind and solar," the Federal Court auditors criticize..

 

Auditors also doubt that the need for reserve power plants has been properly identified. For example, the federal government had planned on October 1, 2020 to create a 2 gigawatt "capacity reserve" to secure the electricity market. However, with the blessing of the Federal Systems Agency, transmission system managers have acquired only half of this power plant reserve. The Federal Audit Office "doubts that the Federal Ministry of Economy has fulfilled its legal obligation to verify the size of the capacity reserve".

 

In the event of a power outage, industrial companies are already expected to voluntarily stop production temporarily - in exchange for compensation. The Ministry of Economic Affairs assumes a potential of 16 gigawatts, which will be fully developed by 2030. However, a study by the Federal Environment Agency suggests a potential of only 6 gigawatts, according to the Court of Audit. Apparently, there is no consensus within the federal government on the extent to which voluntary "load shedding" can help stabilize the power grid.

It is also questionable why the federal government expects to have more than 4.5 gigawatts of "emergency electrical systems" to address the disruption to the electrical balance. In the so-called market basic data registry, only 9.4 megawatts of backup power with it are currently registered, which corresponds to only 0.2% of the potential estimated by the federal government. The examiners are surprised by this slight discrepancy!

 

The Bonn auditors also seriously question other assumptions made by the federal government that do not seem to be more (or more) in line with reality. By predicting energy demand, the federal government is basing its forecasts on a population that fell below 75 million by 2050. On the other hand, the Federal Statistical Office predicts, "in the three most important variants examined with a high probability" a population of between 77.6 and 83.6 million people in 2050".

 

The Ministry of Economic Affairs' assumptions about the security of electricity supply are "partly overly optimistic and partly implausible," the auditors criticise. The Department also did not investigate a scenario in which several predictable factors coincide that could compromise security of supply.

 

Thus, network expansion may be delayed and cross-border transmission capacity may be limited at the same time. The Federal Ministry of Economics argues that "a stacking of various disadvantageous scenarios does not make sense according to the current technical discussion". However, the reviewers found this objection "not convincing ».

 

Comment: well, the delay in terms of the network, for sure!

Other uncertainties arise from the growing demand for electricity for the electrification of transportation and for the production of energy-bearing hydrogen in electrolysis plants. The auditors therefore do not share the federal government's assumption that electricity demand will remain more or less stable until 2030.

 

The Federal Ministry of Economy rejected this criticism: Germany has a coherent system for assessing security of supply. Hydrogen production also does not represent a charge on the grid, as electrolysis systems can be controlled in a "network-friendly" way.

 

However, the ministry as a whole fails to convince the auditors: "The Federal Court of Audit maintains that the key assumptions on which the current assessment of security of supply in the electricity market is based are unrealistic or outdated," states the conclusion of the special report.

 

Some reactions in France and Germany :

Comment: What is disappointing and really worrying  is the lack of reactions in the press and in political debates  to such  profound and fundamental criticisms of a policy that seriously threatens stability and prosperity in Germany, but not only, throughout Europe ...This is election year in Germany, and this topic ( is the energiewende the right way), which is of utmost importance should really be debated…   well, it is above all a deafening silence that seems to be the rule, in the press and among politicians, we hear only silence

 

German reactions: comments on Die Welt's website: "The power of the press also lies in not reporting certain things. So there is no problem. »

The tone of the comments (>600, rather favourable, however, shows that those who reacted already knew the magnitude of the disaster. Obviously the others, all the others, including the politicians have chosen to ignore the serious warning of the Federal Court of Auditors

"In this situation, it is totally irresponsible to close other power plants. In particular, the 6 nuclear power plants still in operation must continue to operate, especially since they do not emit CO2 in operation. »

 

« No one should say during or after the first power outage that they could not have guessed. I wonder when Mr. Scheller, as President of the Federal Court of Auditors, will retire early. Many people will want to push for its replacement. But I hope that there will be more critical voices and that they will be heard. »

 

"Which party to choose for the next election? Unfortunately, this boils down to the fact that Germany must first have a very big blackout before politicians and the majority of the population wake up. »

 

"Which party to choose for the next election? Unfortunately, this boils down to the fact that Germany must first have a very big blackout before politicians and the majority of the population wake up. »»

 

"The Federal Finance Control will certainly be given new tasks after the Greens take power. For example, they can calculate how often the wrong sex has been used or how many marginalized groups are offended."

 

Some French reactions

Gérard Grundblatt ;  https://twitter.com/grunblatt/status/1377592501872234500

"Germans are starting to open their eyes: The German Federal Court of Auditors is warning about the security of electricity supply. Three years ago, the CdCf issued a very critical report on Energiewende, which it considered to be out of control. It reiterates its criticism but with an analysis on the security of electricity supply. It is interesting that it addresses technical issues and challenges the BMWi in a rather alarmist mode. The points raised are exactly the same as in France: what future demand, what flexibility to deal with the intermittency of ENRs, what acceptability of ENRs, network, high electricity prices, ..."

Tristan Kamin ; https://twitter.com/TristanKamin/status/1393892381230043138?s=20

I could not identify the most important information in this article that presents the assessment made by the German federal equivalent of the Court of Audit, about the electricity component of the energy transition.

Is it the fact that, since the previous study in 2018, there has been little effort made to stem the loss of control over electricity costs? 31 cents per kWh for households, Denmark dethroned.

Or the new indication that there is a real risk to the country's electricity supply security?

It is mentioned that at the beginning of the year, 11 coal-fired power plants were shut down. That's good, that's a good thing, in every respect. And so we are ahead of schedule in our plan to get out of coal.

On the other hand, this advance has been achieved at the cost of assumptions that sometimes seem unrealistic or that are outdated by current political and economic developments.

This includes the development of wind power, where reaching the objectives is not considered a realistic assumption. Or on solar energy, whose production forecasts exclude the possibility of a bad year with excessively little sunshine.

Even the population assumptions diverge between the federal government, which is counting on 75 million inhabitants in 2050 against 78 to 84 for the Federal Office of Statistics. "

Michel Gay; https://www.contrepoints.org/2021/05/16/397534-transition-energetique-lallemagne-sinquiete-enfin

"Energy transition: Germany is worried (finally!) ... And the report concludes sternly that "essential assumptions on which the current assessment of the security of supply of the electricity market is based are unrealistic or outdated."  In France, the "ambitious" work of ADEME providing 100% renewable energy in 2050 in France is also totally unrealistic and the French should also be worried!